Decoupling and all that!

Over the past few months, there has been a lot of talk about decoupling in the worlds economic markets and how Europe or China or India are not going to be affected as much when the US goes down.  And now, as the whole world catches a cold, there are more comments of how that is not true. To me, both of these versions are flawed. It is obvious that it is neither black nor white. Anyone in the world can not claim to be not affected when the US economy goes down, but, what we can definitely say is that businesses are on the whole far more “insured” today as compared to 10 years ago. On the one hand, every market in the world will swing wildly when the biggest FIIs start pulling money out of investments, but on the other hand companies (especially in India) will still march onwards to stellar growth and results. It is the panic of the domestic investor that is causing them to lose money. I’ll write more on that in another post, but basically my point is:

a) Decoupling is true, and more so for India than most others, in the sense that we are not so export-dependent as China. The biggest companies in the sensex will go on doing amazing business and keep growing in spite of what happens in the US. Of course there are some export oriented segments or US oriented companies which might suffer in the process. The fact that stock prices have gone down does not mean that the companies have just become unprofitable, or not-so-profitable or anything else. Its just a case of demand and supply of the shares – it’ll change again soon enough.

b) Decoupling is NOT true in the financial or equity markets. Today money flows almost freely from one country to another. But of course we are going to see a fall in Indian equities if the institutional investors are all pulling out money. Moreover, this decoupling will never happen and more in my next post.

Dubai Guide, Post #2

After my initial post on getting into Dubai… the next issue to tackle would usually be finding accomodation for yourself. Not to deny that at this stage a number of things start happening simultaneously, almost all of which are also counting on your residence visa to be stamped onto your passport… but let’s deal with finding a house and renting it for now.

The first thing to do is get a number of brokers on the job. Points to be noted:

a) Most brokers hardly have time (circa 2007) and are doing you a huge favour

b) Try to know where you would want your house to be, hopefully even the size and the rent you’re willing to pay

c) Have as many of the papers ready as possible, as the broker and property manager want the deal closed yesterday (when you do find something you like)

– Resident visa/permit

– Cheque book for brokerage/deposit/rent

– Letter from your employer (If I remember correctly)

Once you have all these brokers working for you, it is advisable to see at least 3-4 places everyday till you find the best combination for yourself. Many buildings will be family only, and apparently some areas are best left alone. The thing is, Bur Dubai and Marina etc should be the costliest… I know about Bur Dubai (the golden sands area) and it is so as it’s in the heart of Dubai. Whether you wanna go left or right, you’re in a very central place. Of course, if budgets demand it… you can get a cheaper place in Deira.. lesser in Ghusais and then moving in to Sharjah etc. Also, one has the option of going towards international city or away from Bur dubai in the direction opposite to Deira on Sheikh Zayed road along Al Barsha etc… rents should get cheaper as you go farther away. Obviously localities like Jumeirah, Marina, and the upcoming Downtown Dubai have their own spiralling costs and lifestyles.